Weekly Market Update: November 2, 2026

Market Update
Written by Trey Kerns

Week Ending October 30, 2026

S&P 500: −0.57%
NASDAQ Composite: −2.00%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: −0.85%

Weekly changes compare the October 30, 2026, closing values with October 23, 2026, and exclude dividends.

Market Takeaway

U.S. equity markets finished the week lower across all three major indexes. The NASDAQ Composite had the largest decline, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.

The week brought a Federal Reserve decision, an initial estimate of third-quarter economic growth, and updated inflation and employment-cost data. Microsoft also reported higher revenue and earnings that exceeded the analyst estimates discussed below.

Economic growth continued, but higher prices remained part of the picture. These reports covered different periods and measures, making it useful to look beyond any one headline.

Thematic Drivers of the Week

1. Federal Reserve Held Rates Steady

What happened: The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28. Its statement described economic activity as expanding at a strong pace and inflation as elevated.

Why it mattered: The decision established the current policy setting while leaving future decisions dependent on incoming information. A decision to hold rates does not establish the timing or direction of a later move.

Market context: The decision occurred during a week when the three major equity indexes declined. Those weekly changes do not establish how much the policy announcement influenced market prices.

2. Growth and Inflation Offered Different Perspectives

What happened: The advance estimate showed real GDP growing at a 3.4% annualized rate in the third quarter. September consumer spending increased in dollar terms, but inflation-adjusted spending changed by less than 0.1%.

Why it mattered: Rising spending can reflect both additional purchases and higher prices. Separating nominal spending from inflation-adjusted spending helps explain what households are receiving for those dollars.

Market context: The reports provided economic context alongside corporate earnings and the Fed decision. Quarterly GDP and monthly spending measure different periods, so their growth rates should not be compared directly.

Earnings Recap: Key Companies in Focus

Microsoft (MSFT) - Reported October 28

Results: Fiscal first quarter 2027, ended September 30, 2026.

  • Revenue: $92.279 billion, up 19% year over year.

  • GAAP diluted earnings per share: $4.92, up 32% year over year.

  • Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share: $4.89, up 18% year over year.

  • Adjusted EPS estimate: $4.71; actual $4.89, a beat of approximately 3.82%.

  • Revenue estimate: $90.58 billion; actual $92.279 billion, a beat of approximately 1.88%.

The estimates are from Zacks Investment Research surveys reported by the Associated Press on Yahoo Finance: 14 analysts for earnings and 13 for revenue. Other analyst surveys can produce different estimates.

Takeaway: Microsoft exceeded both of those estimates, but GAAP and adjusted earnings remain different measures. The company’s non-GAAP results exclude the impact of its OpenAI investments. An earnings beat describes a comparison with expectations, not a prediction of future results or stock returns.

Major Economic Reports Recap

Gross Domestic Product - Released October 29

Real GDP increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, compared with 2.2% in the second quarter. This was the advance estimate and remains subject to revision.

Economic Takeaway: The initial estimate showed faster growth. The annualized quarterly rate is different from a year-over-year comparison.

Personal Income and Outlays - Released October 29

September personal income rose 0.2% and nominal consumer spending increased 0.5% from August. Real consumer spending increased by less than 0.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.5% for the month and 3.6% from a year earlier. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually. These estimates are subject to revision.

Economic Takeaway: Prices accounted for much of the increase in nominal spending. The monthly inflation figures are not annualized rates.

Employment Cost Index - Released October 30

Civilian compensation costs increased 0.8% over the three months ended September, seasonally adjusted. Over 12 months, costs rose 3.4% on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis.

Economic Takeaway: Compensation continued to rise. The quarterly and annual figures use different comparison periods and seasonal adjustments.

Initial Jobless Claims - Released October 29

Initial unemployment claims were 194,000 for the week ended October 24, down 1,000 from the prior week’s revised 195,000. The prior estimate had been 194,000. These seasonally adjusted figures are preliminary.

Economic Takeaway: Claims edged lower after accounting for the revision, illustrating why comparisons should use the updated prior figure.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • All three major equity indexes finished lower.

  • The Federal Reserve held its target rate range steady.

  • Growth continued while inflation remained an important part of the spending picture.

  • Microsoft exceeded the identified earnings and revenue estimates.

Looking Ahead

The November 2–6 calendar includes business surveys, labor-market reports, and corporate earnings. The scheduled events below remain subject to change.

Earnings to Watch This Week

  • AMD (AMD), November 3: Fiscal third-quarter results are scheduled after the market close, followed by a conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

Economic Data to Watch

  • November 2, 10:00 a.m. Eastern: October ISM Manufacturing PMI.

  • November 3, 10:00 a.m. Eastern: September JOLTS job openings and labor turnover.

  • November 4, 10:00 a.m. Eastern: October ISM Services PMI.

  • November 5, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: Preliminary third-quarter Productivity and Costs.

  • November 6, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: October Employment Situation.

Fed Events to Watch

The Fed calendar lists the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey for November 2, and a discussion by Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman on supervision and regulation for November 6. Consumer Credit is also scheduled for November 6. No FOMC rate decision is scheduled this week; the next meeting is December 8–9.

Closing Thought

A week of declining stock indexes can coincide with economic growth and an earnings beat. Each describes a different part of the financial picture. Weekly updates provide context, while longer-term financial decisions involve goals, time horizons, cash needs, and risk.

Sources

Disclosure: This market update is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market data and company results are subject to revision and interpretation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.

Trey Kerns https://KernsLegacyPlanning.com
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Weekly Market Update: October 19, 2026