Weekly Market Update: September 28, 2026

Market Update
Written By Trey Kerns

Week Ending September 25, 2026

S&P 500: +1.21%
NASDAQ Composite: +2.06%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.28%

Weekly index price changes compare the September 25 close with the September 18 close and exclude dividends.

Market Takeaway

All three major U.S. stock indexes finished the week higher. The NASDAQ Composite gained 2.06%, the S&P 500 rose 1.21%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.28%. The difference between them is a reminder that a strong week for one benchmark may look more modest in another.

The week also brought readings on new home sales, factory orders, unemployment claims, and consumer sentiment. AutoZone, General Mills, and Darden Restaurants reported quarterly results. Each report covers a different part of the economy and has its own limits. The VIX finished Friday close to its prior-week level.

Thematic Drivers of the Week

1. Housing sales remained difficult to read

What happened: The Census Bureau and HUD estimated August sales of new single-family homes at an annual rate of 684,000, compared with 643,000 in July. The reported 6.4% monthly rise has a ±19.5% confidence interval, so the change is not statistically significant. The estimated supply of new homes for sale was 8.5 months at the current sales pace.

Why it mattered: Housing reports offer a view of demand and available inventory, but one monthly estimate cannot settle the direction of the housing market.

Market context: Rising stock indexes during the week do not establish that this housing estimate drove prices.

2. Factory orders were nearly unchanged

What happened: Advance August orders for manufactured durable goods were $338.6 billion, down $0.1 billion, or virtually unchanged, from July. Orders excluding transportation increased 0.3%.

Why it mattered: Transportation can swing the headline figure. The two readings give different views of the same report, and both may be revised.

Market context: The factory-order report added a manufacturing data point but cannot isolate the cause of weekly market moves.

3. New unemployment claims edged lower

What happened: Seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims totaled 197,000 for the week ending September 19, down 1,000 from the preceding week’s revised level.

Why it mattered: Claims are a timely measure of new filings for benefits. They do not describe hiring, total employment, or every source of labor market change.

Market context: A small weekly decline does not determine the broader employment trend. The September jobs report is scheduled for October 2.

Earnings Recap Key Companies in Focus

AutoZone Inc AZO Reported September 22

Fiscal fourth quarter ended August 29, 2026. The quarter was 16 weeks in both the current and year-earlier periods.

Results:

·         Net sales: $6.6 billion, up 5.6% from the same quarter last year.

·         Domestic same-store sales: up 1.6%. Total-company same-store sales rose 2.7% as reported and 1.5% excluding currency changes.

·         Net income: $931.6 million, compared with $837.0 million. Diluted earnings per share: $56.05, compared with $48.71.

Takeaway: AutoZone’s gross margin benefited from tariff refunds and a noncash LIFO inventory accounting effect. Its results provide a company-level view of auto-parts demand, and those margin effects limit a simple reading of underlying profitability.

General Mills Inc GIS Reported September 23

Fiscal first quarter ended August 30, 2026. Comparisons are with the same quarter a year earlier.

Results:

·         Net sales: $4.4 billion, down 3%, including the effect of the divested U.S. yogurt business. Company-defined organic net sales were flat.

·         GAAP operating profit: $634 million, down 63%, largely because the prior-year period included an approximately $1 billion yogurt divestiture gain.

·         GAAP diluted earnings per share: $0.74, down 67%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share: $0.75, down 13% in constant currency. Adjusted and organic measures exclude specified items and are not GAAP results.

Takeaway: The prior-year divestiture makes the GAAP comparison unusually large. The company’s organic sales and adjusted earnings measures offer additional context, but do not replace its reported results. One packaged-food company does not represent all consumer spending.

Darden Restaurants DRI Reported September 24

Fiscal first quarter ended August 30, 2026. Comparisons are with fiscal first quarter 2026.

Results:

·         Total sales: $3.200 billion, compared with $3.045 billion, an increase of 5.1%.

·         Blended same-restaurant sales: up 3.1% on a fiscal-calendar basis and 3.2% on a comparable-calendar basis.

·         Diluted net earnings per share from continuing operations: $2.05. The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 outlook; actual results may differ.

Takeaway: A shift from a 53-week to a 52-week fiscal year offsets the year-over-year fiscal periods by one week. Darden’s results offer one view of restaurant demand, not a measure of the entire consumer economy or an indication of the stock’s future performance.

Major Economic Reports Recap

New Residential Sales Released September 24

The August estimate was 684,000 new single-family homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. The reported 6.4% change from July was not statistically significant. Estimated for-sale inventory was 483,000 homes, or 8.5 months at the current sales pace. These estimates are subject to revision.

Economic Takeaway: Sampling uncertainty limits what one month of new-home data can establish about the direction of demand.

Durable Goods Orders Released September 25

Advance August new orders were virtually unchanged at $338.6 billion. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.3%. The contrast shows why the details matter when a volatile component affects the headline.

Economic Takeaway: Orders offer a view of manufacturing demand, but they do not measure completed production or inflation-adjusted output.

Weekly Unemployment Claims Released September 24

Initial claims were 197,000 for the week ending September 19, down 1,000 from the revised prior-week level. The advance estimate may be revised.

Economic Takeaway: Fewer initial claims were filed than in the preceding week. This one measure does not describe hiring or all employment conditions.

Consumer Sentiment Released September 25

The University of Michigan’s final September Index of Consumer Sentiment was 48.1, compared with 51.7 in August. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6% from 4.0%. These are survey responses and expectations, not a reading of realized inflation.

Economic Takeaway: Surveyed consumers expressed weaker views in September. Sentiment can differ from observed spending and may change as conditions develop.

Technical Perspective

The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, closed at 14.87 on September 25, compared with 14.81 on September 18.

Interpretation: The VIX reflects options-implied expectations of near-term S&P 500 volatility. Its small week-to-week change does not establish the direction of future stock returns or guarantee calm conditions.

Key Takeaways for Investors

·         The NASDAQ led the three major indexes for the week; all three posted gains.

·         August new home sales appeared higher, but sampling uncertainty prevents a firm conclusion about the monthly change.

·         Durable goods orders were nearly flat overall, while initial claims were 197,000 in the latest weekly reading.

·         AutoZone, General Mills, and Darden results offered different views of consumer-facing businesses, each with important comparison details.

·         Consumer sentiment weakened, while the VIX finished close to its prior Friday level.

Looking Ahead

The September 28–October 2 calendar includes growth, inflation, manufacturing, and employment reports, selected Fed remarks, and a consumer-brand earnings release. The results below had not been released at this article’s research cutoff. Schedules can change.

Earnings to Watch This Week

·         NIKE (NKE), October 1: Fiscal Q1 2027 results are scheduled after the market close. Revenue by channel and margin commentary may offer a company-level view of footwear and apparel demand.

Economic Data to Watch

·         September 30: BEA’s third estimate of second-quarter GDP and August Personal Income and Outlays, including PCE inflation, scheduled for 8:30 AM ET.

·         September 30: Census Bureau advance economic indicators for August, scheduled for 8:30 AM ET.

·         October 1: ISM’s September Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for 10:00 AM ET.

·         October 2: The September Employment Situation, scheduled for 8:30 AM ET.

Fed Events to Watch

Governor Lisa Cook is scheduled to speak on AI and emerging technology September 28 and the rural economy September 30. Governor Michael Barr is scheduled to discuss the economic outlook September 29, and Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak on payments the same day. No FOMC meeting or minutes release is listed for this week. Individual officials’ remarks are not Committee policy decisions.

Closing Thought

The major indexes rose last week, but the underlying reports did not tell a single story. Factory orders were nearly unchanged, consumer sentiment weakened, and company results required attention to divestitures, calendar shifts, and accounting effects. A headline captures only part of that picture.

Weekly developments provide context for understanding markets. Their significance can vary with a household’s goals, time horizon, and cash-flow needs.

Sources

 

Disclosure: This market update is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market data and company results are subject to revision and interpretation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.

Trey Kerns https://KernsLegacyPlanning.com
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Weekly Market Update: September 21, 2026